Verified Demand · On-chain diligence
Measure demand, not motion.
See what share of a project’s settled volume came from wallets that paid again — across sellers and across days. A dated, checkable diligence artifact on the public Base ledger.
x402 is the open protocol AI agents and apps use to pay for services in stablecoins (USDC) on Base. Dashboards report the raw settled volume and attribution tools credit who drove it; Verified Demand measures how much of it came from wallets that paid again.
A written Verified Demand memo (PDF) — verified-vs-reported volume, repeat-buyer count, and a neutral classification, with the public transactions cited inline.
Scope: one named x402 project. Public Base data only. Neutral measurement — not investment advice.
The finding
Across the measured contract, 4.92% of settled volume qualified
Of $22,966.59 in settled x402 volume, $1,130.94 came from wallets that returned and paid again.
One bar, drawn to scale. The verified segment is the volume that survives a strict repeat-buyer rule; the rest is unverified by this method — not a synonym for wash trading.
View full measurement breakdown
- Verified volume
- $1,130.94 USDC
- Total settled volume
- $22,966.59 USDC
- Verified share
- 4.92% ($1,130.94 ÷ $22,966.59)
- Settlements scanned
- 772,130 (scan size, not the denominator)
- Qualifying repeat-buyer wallets
- 453 distinct wallets
- Window · chain · source
- 30-day window · 23 May – 22 Jun 2026 (UTC) · Base · one facilitator (Coinbase CDP)
How it’s measured
What “verified” means here
A buyer who returns and pays again is more costly to manufacture than raw volume — and the whole scan is public.
No proprietary model, nothing hidden. Every x402 payment that clears the facilitator contract on Base is a public on-chain record, so the same scan is reproducible.
See the complete methodology and limitations
A conservative floor, not certainty. The method confirms simple genuine-demand patterns and removes obvious self-dealing; it does not detect sophisticated coordination spread across many wallets with organic-looking timing. So a verified number is a floor, and an unverified number is a question to look into — the verified share may shift as coverage broadens beyond one facilitator (Coinbase CDP).
Worked example · one seller
Following one project through the ledger
46% of this seller’s settled volume survives the repeat-buyer rule — spread across 158 distinct wallets.
Start from the reported figure, apply the rule, and read what remains. For this seller, 158 distinct wallets clear the bar across 4,917 settlements — so the surviving volume is broad-based rather than concentrated in one or two wallets.
Inspect seller address and public transaction inputs
Seller 0x325bdf6f7efab24a2210c48c1b64cab2eae1d430 Base 30-day window
| Field (public, on-chain) | Value |
|---|---|
| Reported settled volume | $304.32 USDC |
| Distinct verified repeat buyers | 158 wallets |
| Verified settlements | 4,917 |
| Verified volume | $140.15 USDC |
| Verified share (verified ÷ reported) | 46% |
| Example settlements |
0x85b3…6fe5 · 0.08 USDC · 2026-05-29 18:44 UTC 0xf91f…7b74 · 0.02 USDC · 2026-05-23 21:11 UTC 0x8106…18e0 · 0.01 USDC · 2026-05-24 23:32 UTC (public Base settlements via the Coinbase CDP facilitator; buyer wallets not shown) |
The memo
What $500 buys
One named x402 project, taken through the exact method above — ready to forward inside a diligence thread.
Use it before a partner discussion, to pressure-test a traction claim, or to surface which buyer and revenue questions remain open. One PDF, every figure checkable on Base.
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Demand & buyer analysis
Total settled, verified volume, and surviving share — plus how many distinct wallets came back, and how broad or concentrated that base is.
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Classification & caveats
A neutral classification — broad / concentrated / demand not established — with the uncertainty stated plainly alongside it.
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Public evidence & analyst follow-up
Representative settlements cited so any figure can be checked on a Base explorer, plus one round of analyst follow-up by email. Seller addresses only; no buyer wallets disclosed.
See everything included in the memo
- Demand reconciliation
- Total settled, verified volume, and the surviving share — each with its denominator, window, and chain.
- Buyer breadth
- How many distinct wallets came back and paid — and how broad or concentrated that base is.
- Concentration analysis
- Whether verified volume is spread across many buyers or leans on a handful of wallets.
- Public transaction appendix
- Representative settlements cited so any figure can be checked on a Base explorer. Seller addresses only; no buyer wallets disclosed.
- Classification & caveats
- A neutral classification — broad / concentrated / demand not established — with the uncertainty stated alongside it.
- Analyst follow-up
- One round of analyst follow-up by email to clarify the figures or the method.
Delivery, scope and refund terms
Delivery within 5 business days · each memo is computed fresh and stamped with an “as of” date and 30-day window · prepared for you, not resold · if no settlements exist for a named project in the window you’re told first and refunded in full.